Presentation
A Hybrid Prediction Market Design for Scientific Replication Forecasting
SessionPoster Session 2
DescriptionScientists increasingly worry that many high-profile experiments cannot be reproduced—a “replication crisis” that erodes confidence and drains research funds. Prediction markets can harness collective insight about which results will replicate, but conventional designs suffer from thin liquidity, slow payouts, and limited expert engagement. We introduce a hybrid replication market that blends three automated-market-maker (AMM) models, reputation-based staking, and staged payouts to solve these problems.
Universities or grant agencies that sponsor a market can choose from three built-in pricing rules that keep the odds meaningful even when only a few people are trading. Forecasters may place “linked bets” that tie together related studies, and those whose predictions prove right earn both cash and a visible credibility badge they can cite in their CVs. Winnings are paid out in stages—after preregistration, after data collection, and again at publication—so money isn’t locked away for years. To make the results easy to understand, an AI tool adds a short, expert-checked explanation next to each probability.
By aligning financial, reputational, and transparency incentives, our design offers funders a practical triage tool for replication efforts and helps researchers gauge the robustness of new findings—all within a market that is both liquid and intellectually rewarding.
Universities or grant agencies that sponsor a market can choose from three built-in pricing rules that keep the odds meaningful even when only a few people are trading. Forecasters may place “linked bets” that tie together related studies, and those whose predictions prove right earn both cash and a visible credibility badge they can cite in their CVs. Winnings are paid out in stages—after preregistration, after data collection, and again at publication—so money isn’t locked away for years. To make the results easy to understand, an AI tool adds a short, expert-checked explanation next to each probability.
By aligning financial, reputational, and transparency incentives, our design offers funders a practical triage tool for replication efforts and helps researchers gauge the robustness of new findings—all within a market that is both liquid and intellectually rewarding.
Event Type
Poster
TimeWednesday, October 15th5:30pm - 6:30pm CDT
LocationRiverside East