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Into the crystal ball: integrating work domain analysis and computational modelling for prospective systems analysis
DescriptionForecasting the behavior of future systems is a critical challenge for Human Factors and Ergonomics (HFE). Recently, computational modelling methods such as System Dynamics (SD) have been utilized to simulate the behaviour of sociotechnical systems. This is a promising avenue for HFE, however, the relationship between HFE methods and computational models is opaque, particularly how to translate HFE analyses into valid computational models. In this study we used Work Domain Analysis (WDA) to inform the development of a computational SD model to forecast the likely impacts of a proposed dedicated adolescents and young adults (AYAs) inpatient service within a local health service hospital. Simulations via the SD model demonstrated that a 10% improvement in quality of care created by the proposed AYA inpatient service would likely result in an 18% improvement in AYA population health and wellbeing and a 30% improvement in confidence in health service. The findings demonstrate that WDA provides a useful approach to inform the development of computational models which in turn can be used to simulate system behavior and outcomes over time. This provides a capacity to translate ‘static’ HFE models into dynamic quantitative computational models. Further applications integrating HFE and computational modelling methods are encouraged.